ST. LOUIS – Weather pattern changes are on the way! It’s generally easy to say that in the spring since spring is a transitional season. But this year, we are seeing bigger pattern shifts. While we have been in an El Niño pattern for the last few months, we are propelling toward a return to the La Niña pattern of last year. Here’s what that means for our spring outlook:
March
March is never the spring month you want it to be. You want sun and warmth and all that goes with that—namely some time outdoors. But March is fickle. Some years, it’s more like winter than spring. And I think this year looks to be one of those years. Our February has been amazingly mild overall, but that changes in March. Near- and below-normal temperatures are on the way. So, while we’ve had 50s and 60s this month, expect cooler air in March. That means mostly 40s for highs in the first half of the month. When we do get our temps back to an acceptable spring range, rain will follow. While we have a couple of decent chances of rain in the first two weeks of March, the last two weeks have more chances with more warm air.
Last year, March started warm with a chill in the middle.
This year, the chill is at the start of the month.
March 2023 brought some decent rain and three days of measurable snow.
This year, I can’t rule out a stray winter storm, but more rain will be around late in the month.
April
This April will be noteworthy for a couple of non-weather reasons: the solar eclipse on April 8, as well as the dual emergence of cicada broods. We’ve seen this sort of thing happen in St. Louis within the last 15 years. But it’s safe to say, the bugs will be everywhere—and they will be loud! Weather-wise, April is an unsettled month. Severe weather is something to watch as we transition from winter to summer. This year will be no different. Since we are moving to a new global pattern, the unsettled atmosphere will be more prominent. So, look for rain at least once or twice per week and severe weather chances with both. Temperatures look good this April, with 60s and 70s prominent.
Last year, April was highlighted by severe weather in the middle of the month, with 12 tornadoes on April 15.
This year, we need to be prepared for rounds of rain and severe storms.
Temperatures last year were all over the board, with seven days in the 80s.
This year, look for temperatures in the 60s and 70s.
May
May always has the potential to be all over the place. Spring-like or summer-like, stormy and wet, or hot and dry. And I think this year has the potential to be all of those things. The wet and stormy pattern from April should continue in May, especially at the beginning of the month. The first two weeks could have several rounds. But since the global pattern is changing—remember, we transition from El Niño to La Niña by the summer—dry time is back towards the end of the month. By that time, the warm air will start to build.
Last May was extremely dry, with over three inches short on rainfall, and it set up a dry summer.
This May begins with a bang, then dry time is back late in the month.
Last May, we had four days at or over 90 degrees—a warmer-than-average May.
This year, temperatures will start cooler at the beginning and then warm towards the end.