ST. LOUIS – Do the St. Louis Cardinals still have a chance at a Red October? Mathematically, yes. But with less than a month left in the regular season, any path to postseason looks to be an uphill battle.
The Cardinals will complete a stretch of 19 consecutive games against postseason-positioned teams on Wednesday. In a stretch where the season could have taken a turn for the worse, the Cardinals have held their own. They will wrap up a daunting stretch as either a .500 ballclub or two games above after starting it just below the .500 mark.
Entering Wednesday, the Cardinals are 70-69 with 23 games on hand. They sit 11 games back of the NL Central Division lead and 5.5 games out of a Wild Card spot.
Time is running out and the Cardinals’ margin of error is growing slimmer by the day.
Their elimination number for a Wild Card spot currently stands at 17. Any combination of 17 losses from the Cardinals or wins by the third-place Wild Card team, currently the Atlanta Braves (75-63), will reduce their postseason odds. The New York Mets and Chicago Cubs are also jockeying for postseason hopes with a stronger record than the Cardinals, which could also make things tricky.
The elimination number to win the NL Central outright is even smaller (9). The Milwaukee Brewers would win the division even with .500 baseball the rest of the way, which makes the more likely path to possible postseason hopes a Wild Card.
What might it take to squeeze out a playoff spot? The 2011 and 2021 teams are good examples – 18-8 and 22-7 in September respectively – but also anomalies. And it would probably require something very similar of this year’s ballclub to punch a ticket to postseason.
Let’s do some Cardinal math…
To outmatch pace of NL Wild Card
Say the third-place Wild Card-holding Atlanta Braves (75-63), perform to their current pace for the rest of the season. At their current pace, they would finish around 88-74.
In this case, the St. Louis Cardinals, in theory, would need to finish no worse than 18-5 in their next 23 games (or win around four of every remaining five games) to clinch their ticket to postseason on a Wild Card.
One benefit that could work to the Cardinals, perhaps, is that they won the season series over the Atlanta Braves and would hold a tiebreaker edge in the case both finish with the same record in the hunt for postseason.
That would not be the case with the New York Mets (75-64) if they climb to the third spot, but could be for the Cubs (71-68), who would also need a similar run to the Cardinals to obtain postseason.
To outmatch recent Wild Card history
Major League Baseball expanded its postseason format to include three Wild Card teams in each league in 2022. Since that format change, the Philadelphia Phillies and Arizona Diamondbacks have secured the final spot with an average of 85.5 wins. Both eventually turned late-season momentum into World Series berths.
Say the Cardinals were to finish just above that average mark with 86 wins, with other variables likely working in their favor. That would mean a finish 10 games above .500 at 86-76.
In this case, the St. Louis Cardinals, in theory, would need to finish no worse than 16-7 in their next 23 games (or win around two of every remaining three games) to clinch their ticket to postseason on a Wild Card.
The Cardinals would also need to leapfrog at least three teams, the Cubs, Mets and presumably the Braves.
What now?
Keep in mind that the 18-5 and 16-7 very lenient estimates and wouldn’t guarantee postseason. But they could be benchmarks to monitor throughout September.
To this point of the season, the Cardinals’ best run came from about Mother’s Day to right before All-Star break. St. Louis used a 33-18 stretch (.642 winning percentage) to once climb up to six games above .500 from Mother’s Day to just before All-Star break. To truly push for the postseason, St. Louis will likely need to close out the season even stronger.
After finishing a road trip against the Milwaukee Brewers on Wednesday, all but one of the Cardinals’ opponents from here on out are below .500, which could spark a late-season run if they capitalize on weaker competition. The rest of the regular season includes…
Home vs. Seattle Mariners (.496) from Sept. 6-8
Home vs. Cincinnati Reds (.475) from Sept. 10-12
Away at Toronto Blue Jays (.479) from Sept. 13-15
Home vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (.471) from Sept. 16-19
Home vs. Cleveland Guardians (.576) from Sept. 20-22
Away at Colorado Rockies (.367) from Sept. 24-26
Away at San Francisco Giants (.489) from Sept. 27-29
Still, the odds of postseason are looking bleak. Baseball Reference and FanGraphs both give the Cardinals around a 1% chance of making the postseason picture as of Wednesday.
That said, anything can happen before all teams complete 162 games. For the next few weeks, it will be a lot of wait-and-see.
