ST. LOUIS – In one of the most expensive and anticipated primary races for U.S. Congress this year, challenger Wesley Bell defeats incumbent Cori Bush for Democratic nomination of Missouri Congressional District 1, a seat representing the St. Louis-area.
Bell won nomination to run as the Democratic candidate in the November 2024 general election. Bush has held the seat for the last four years, and her current term will end in January.
By winning the primary as a challenger, Bell accomplished something that isn’t attained often: A challenger defeating an incumbent for a U.S. Congress seat in a primary election. According to political consulting firm CN4 Partners, historically, only around 6% of Congressional incumbents have lost reelection bids in the U.S. primaries.
A 2018 study released by Brookings Institution, a nonprofit that specializes in public policy research, suggests the odds of unseating a Congressional incumbent in a primary are possibly even lower. Brookings reports that only 4.4% of challengers unseated an incumbent in U.S. House primary elections from 2012 to 2016 and only 2.7% of challengers did so for U.S. Senate primaries in that same time.
When might a rarity become a reality? A 2006 study from Duke University found that factors such as strategic campaigning, increased voter expectations and incumbent shifts to or from moderate policies could all impact a challenger’s chances of winning a primary election.
Bell held a significant fundraising advantage ahead of the primary. According to software company AdImpact, which tracks campaign spending, the race involving Bell and Bush was the second-most expensive primary in U.S. history, with more than $18 million in fundraising. Justice Democrats, a progressive PAC supporting Bush, reports more than $15 million in outside campaign spending in race, with more than two-thirds of it was spent against her campaign.
Speaking with FOX 2 on Wednesday morning, just hours after victory, Bell said on the upcoming general election: “I want to earn your support. If I didn’t get it last time, we need to work together. I’m looking forward to working with all of our community, our elected officials, our stakeholders and partners to wake up this sleeping giant that we call Saint Louis.”
Bush, speaking after Bell’s primary victory Tuesday evening, said of the outcome: “At the end of the day, whether I’m a congresswoman or not, I’m still taking care of my people,”
Bell will run against Republican candidate Andrew Jones for Missouri U.S. District 1 in the Nov. 5, 2024 election. Bell is considered a heavy favorite for a seat that was last occupied by a Republican in 1949.
District 1 covers all of St. Louis City and several cities in north and central St. Louis County.
