ST. LOUIS — What’s the weather going to be like this fall? It depends who you ask. The Old Farmer’s Almanac and the Farmer’s Almanac have very different forecasts. One says we will have a warm and dry season, while the other says we should prepare for cold and wet weather.
The Old Farmer’s Almanac is predicting a warmer-than-normal autumn this year for much of the U.S. The Midwest will start September on the warm side and then slide to average temperatures over the next two months. Drier-than-average conditions are forecast from the Midwest and the Plains through a good part of the West.
A competing almanac offers a very different autumn forecast. The Farmers’ Almanac has released its Extended Fall Forecast for 2024, predicting a chilly and wet autumn for much of the Midwest. If this almanac’s forecast is correct, then Missouri is expected to experience a frigid and wet fall, while Illinois is forecast to have a frosty and wet season.
This forecast extends to other regions as well. The North Central region may face frigid temperatures with significant snowfall and rain. Texas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Arkansas, and parts of Louisiana are advised to prepare for brisk temperatures and ample precipitation, including snow at higher elevations.
The reliability of such long-range forecasts is often dubious. Both the Farmers’ Almanac and its competitor, the Old Farmer’s Almanac, claim an 80% accuracy rate for their traditional forecasting methods. However, studies have shown their predictions to be only slightly better than chance.
An analysis of the Old Farmer’s Almanac’s forecasts for Indianapolis over the past five years revealed only 4 out of 10 correct temperature and precipitation predictions. The Farmers’ Almanac fared even worse, with 0 out of 10 correct predictions for the same location and period.
Meteorologists and climate scientists typically rely on more scientifically rigorous forecasting methods. Local news stations, such as FOX 2 and KPLR 11, generally release their long-range winter weather outlooks later in the fall, using more current data and established meteorological practices.
